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Your contributions, allowances and market risk

How much loss
could allowances absorb?

Compare the value of your subsidised investment after a fall with your own contributions. Invested allowances lose value too.

Check allowances already credited

For existing contracts, compare your actual personal contributions and credited allowances here.

Your contributions

Use amounts actually credited, or estimate simplified model allowances below.

Estimate model allowances

Assumes continuous direct eligibility, constant contributions and the same allowance period for all children. Excludes the young saver bonus, additional tax relief and the Frühstartrente. Model allowances are not confirmed entitlements.

Your allowance buffer

Limits of the allowance buffer and long-term contract risks

The allowance buffer is a nominal comparison using a loss rate you choose. It excludes prior investment gains, costs, taxes, inflation and differences in contribution timing. Credited allowances and contributions lose value together in the model. Breaking even against your own contributions does not preserve purchasing power, guarantee capital or represent an unrestricted withdrawal.

The recovery simulation is also a model. It includes your cost and inflation inputs but no allowances, taxes or withdrawals. Assess actual total costs, including custody, cash-account and administration fees, separately. Future changes to prices, terms, allowances, ETF choices and provider structures are not predicted.

Acquisitions, fund mergers or a provider closing may require adjustments. Clarify transfer options and allowance implications before signing. Not individual investment, tax or legal advice.

Investment accounts and eligibility explained simply

Retirement checklist: review costs, contracts and providers

The allowance rate is not the loss buffer.

With €1,800 of personal contributions and €540 of allowances, support equals 30% of your contributions. However, €2,340 is invested. Break-even against your own contributions therefore occurs at a loss of about 23.08% on the entire investment, rather than 30%.

Nominal break-even does not preserve purchasing power.

This simple comparison excludes prior investment gains, costs, taxes, inflation and different contribution dates. It does not show an unrestricted withdrawal or a final economic profit. Early exit may also have contractual and allowance consequences. The buffer is not a capital guarantee.

For a real account with earlier gains or losses, its current value is a different starting point. The detailed model below explores a savings plan of your choice, with costs and inflation but without allowances. The two models are deliberately explained separately.

BMF: allowance rules and eligibility

Explore further: recovery and a savings-plan stress test without allowances

A stress scenario of your choice, not a loss probability or a reconstruction of historical events.

Blue: no fall · Dashed orange: with a fall. Both paths use the same contributions and return assumptions.

−50% needs +100%.

After a 50% loss, half your capital remains. To recover its old value, that remaining capital must grow by 100%. New contributions can raise the balance but do not recover lost investment returns.

Timing changes the result.

An early fall in a growing savings plan usually affects less accumulated capital than a later fall. Near retirement, there is also less time left. This model excludes withdrawals, so it does not calculate the additional sequence-of-returns risk during retirement.

How the model works

The selected fall occurs once, before the first monthly return of the chosen year. Annual and monthly returns after costs are calculated geometrically. Each month's contribution is then added at month-end. Taxes, allowances, switching charges and variable market returns are excluded.

rnetto=(1+r)(1−c)−1,i=(1+rnetto)1/12−1r_{\mathrm{netto}}=(1+r)(1-c)-1,\qquad i=(1+r_{\mathrm{netto}})^{1/12}-1

Nominal recovery time applies only to the capital remaining after the fall, without new contributions. With a non-positive net return, the model cannot recover from a loss. At a 100% loss, the lost capital cannot grow without new contributions. New contributions remain possible in the savings-plan simulation.

T=ln⁡ ⁣(1/(1−v))ln⁡(1+rnetto)T=\frac{\ln\!\left(1/(1-v)\right)}{\ln(1+r_{\mathrm{netto}})}

The final value's purchasing power is shown in today's euros. Recovering the previous purchasing power is more demanding than merely reaching the old euro amount. Model values are not forecasts or individual advice.

Kreal=KEnde(1+π)JK_{\mathrm{real}}=\frac{K_{\mathrm{Ende}}}{(1+\pi)^J}

Here, T is the number of years to recovery, π is annual inflation and J is the time horizon. The recovery formula applies for 0 < v < 1 and a positive net return. Unlike the retirement scenario, this detailed model uses month-end contributions and excludes allowances.

Put markets and reforms in context · Back to the retirement scenario